So many variables.  Use caution.  The drive up to the Sno-Park was very cleared and looks like the plowing contract came through. Such a breeze to get to parking.  At the trailhead there is a lot of mud, slush and melting snow.  You can get away with just wearing boots (with ice spike option) for first half mile to one mile.  Then it is essential that you put on snowshoes or skis with skins.  The snow gets very deep and powdery quickly.  It appeared one person attempted the approach in boots and was sinking around 3 feet.  I wore size 25 Tubbs Mountaineering snowshoes and floated quite nicely.  The other issue is the rain.  The approach to around 1300feet gain was all rain for me.  Then it switches to snow and dropping temperature. The rain on my gear froze to ice.  Recommend your most extreme 3L Gore-Tex shell and pants.  At the tree-line, I ventured up to be met with high winds and snow.  I think skis with skins would be best.  I was going with the snowshoe and switch to crampon approach because I stink at skiing. White out conditions and summit could not be seen.  The Avalanche risk was moderate to high.  In the town of Cougar I was warned of a 20-30 foot cornice that was ready to release.  I turned around for safety and will go back another day.  Such a great route and hopefully this intel helps.  Cheers. 

As per MSHI Climbing Stewards: SNOWSHOES or SKIS WITH SKINS are MISSION CRITICAL in winter. Crampons and an ice ax were also very important during this climb. Of 10 climbers that headed up on 12/31, only 4 made it to the rim. They were alternating between skis and crampons. I alternated between snowshoes and crampons.

Through the Forest: Patchy shallow snow with lots of exposed rock and dirt until well above the quarry. About 4' deep by the Chocolate Falls neighborhood (3500'). A nice, packed ski and snowshoe track once the snow begins.

Chocolate Falls neighborhood (3500-3900'). Snow 4-6' deep. Soft and deep.

Last trees to the seismograph (3900-5600'): Deep snow and some ice. Big cornice on east side of route over canyon.

Seismograph to 7000: Soft snow over thick ice or just ice.

East aspect of Monitor Ridge (7000-7650'): Deep snow.

Monitor Ridge to Rim (7650-8250'): Heavy rime ice and wind scoured snow.

Rim: Cornice is at least 20' into the crater.

AVI: Two very recent D1 slabs that occurred on rare patches with a fresh wind slab on top of the new snow on top of the hard ice layer. No signs of instability by mid-day.
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Ski: Ridges were a mess of ice and scoured snow, but the 4skiers that made the rim had an awesome ride in the valleys from the rim through the high end of the woods.

Glissade: Conditions unsuitable

Future: Another storm moves in tonight with heavy snow from Marble to the rim through mid-day Jan 1. After that high winds and heavy snow into the weekend (2-3' total). Summit temps in the 20's and rain at Marble. Route conditions by the end of the storm will probably look a lot like today.

CLIMBING OUTLOOK

Snow Parks:  There is no snow at the Cougar SnowPark.  Snow at Marble is patchy and will continue melting this week with overnight lows above freezing and a lot of heavy rain.  There is deep snow on the ski trails higher up and skis or snowshoes are required.  The road and parking are plowed. 

Ski:  There are many snow-free stretches in the first mile of trails headed uphill from Marble and on the June Lake Trail.  Heavy rain and high freezing levels this week won't help.   There is plenty of snow, and a lot of ice, above Chocolate Falls.

Climb:  Dense fog and whiteout conditions with blowing snow will make navigation above the treeline very difficult this weekend.  There will be no markers or footprints to follow.  There will be a lot of hard ice on the upper mountain. Getting lost is not an option in these cold windy conditions, especially for climbers that get wet in the rain at lower altitudes.  

Thursday 1/2: Summit 23 F with winds to 25 mph (wind chill 7F).  Freezing rain in the woods and 1-3" of snow above the tree line.  Very foggy with whiteout conditions likely.   Avi yellow but note that NWAC says "but the volcanoes are outliers".

Friday 1/3: Heavy rain at Marble and heavy snow above the tree line (6-10").  High winds (40+ mph), and 25 F on the summit (wind chill 5 F).  Dense fog, white out conditions. Avi yellow but note that NWAC says "but the volcanoes are outliers".

Saturday 1/4: High winds (35+ mph), very cold (25 F, wind chill 0F), heavy snow, whiteout conditions. Rain at Marble Mtn.  Avi risk will increase.  

Sunday 1/5: Winds 25 mph, summit temp 23 F (wind chill 7 F).  Light snow continues until mid-day with light rain at Marble Mtn.  Fog , flat light, blowing snow, and whiteout conditions will continue to make navigation very difficult. Be sure to check NWAC!

Monday 1/6 and onward: It looks like the storm ends Sunday and there may be some sunshine and ridiculously warm temps (well above freezing on the summit) through mid-week. Warm temps and sun may increase the avi risk. 

IMPORTANT ALERT!

The Northwest Avalanche Center (NWAC) has made the avalanche risk on Mount St. Helens RED for Friday 12/27 and Saturday 12/28 due to an incoming snowstorm and lots of new snow accumulation. Please exercise caution around all areas with a slope over 35 degrees as you could trigger a large enough avalanche to be fatal. Please check the NWAC Avalanche forecast for more information.

Avalanche Forecast - Northwest Avalanche Center

Marble: The road and parking should be fine.  Mostly rain all week.  There may be 1-4 inches of snow accumulating Thursday night, then it is back to rain. Nightime temps above freezing.  June lake picked up 8 inches on 12/25 but 4 of that has already melted. 

Ski:  Lots of bare patches in the woods.  Dangerous weather above the tree line.

Climb:  There is a big storm through the weekend.   The weather is too severe to even contemplate travel above the tree line. No visibility.  Avi risk.

Thursday 12/26 - Monday 12/30:  Rain low, heavy snow high.   Summit temps of around 15 F with winds of 30-50 MPH (wind chills well below 0F). White out conditions.  No markers or footprints to follow.  Deep new snow and big drifts. Lots of ice in places. Avi Red with warnings on 12/26.  Likely to stay at least orange through 12/30.  The weather is too stormy to even contemplate travel above the tree line.

Tuesday 12/31 onward: There may be a brief break in 12/31, but forecasts have another storm moving in by New Year's Day. 

Snow is patchy for the first half mile or so at the trailhead. Snowshoes may not be necessary until running into solid snow sometime after. Parking lot and roads are cleared and plowed of snow, with some lingering in the parking lot. At this time, there is no active trail grooming at either Sno*Park until snowpack increases. 

Please review the following road and trail conditions for important information: 

• Forest Road 83, 81, 81-830 to Climber's Bivouac are all snow covered with snow depths from a few inches to at least two feet deep. 4x4 High Clearance vehicles are strongly recommended. 
• Climber's Bivouac is now closed for the season due to heavy snowfall accumulations making the road impassable. All climbers must now utilize the Worm Flows Winter Route to climb Mount St. Helens.
• Plowing on Forest Road 83 will not begin until December 1. A contract award is in the works for cross country ski path grooming. 
• Marble Mountain Sno*Park is now open for the season. Sno*Park Permits are not required until Sunday December 1. You may obtain a Sno*Park permit from approved Washington Parks vendors, or online at parks.wa.gov. US Forest Service offices DO NOT issue Sno*Park Permits. 
• All trails require the use of snowshoes due to the depth of snow. Microspikes will not aid you hiking in snow at this time. 
• If you are climbing, you must have ice axes, crampons, and snowshoes due to the amount of snow on the mountain. You may be able to glissade and/or ski back down if the snow is covering the boulderfields. 

For more information, contact Mount St. Helens National Volcanic Monument Headquarters at 360-449-7800 and press 0 to reach the front desk.