July 30: Three significant events. (1) Strong NW/NNW winds have exploded and moved the fire!!! There are now six new level III evacuation zones (leave immediately), (2) See Figure 2: Cedar Creek Fire exploded in the middle to upper Wolf Creek watershed producing a 34,000 foot tall pyrocumulus cloud that produced significant rainfall along a NE line as well as 7 lightning strikes.

(3) A new fire in North Cascades National Park (~100 acres), 4 miles south of the border in Bear Creek (empties into the Chilliwack River.  Park officials have closed portions of the Copper Ridge and Chilliwack trails due to the fire’s proximity. The Copper Ridge Trail is closed from Copper Lookout to the junction with the Chilliwack Trail. The Chilliwack Trail is closed from the junction of Brush Creek Trail to terminus. Copper Lake, Bear Creek, Indian Creek, and Little Chilliwack camps are also closed.  

July 30: Three major concerns. 1. Fire has gone up both sides of Silver Star Creek and may continue further up Early Winter Creek. 2. The fire line near the Freestone and its group of properties and homes has not been firmly established.  Its establishment is a high priority. 3. No homes have been either damaged or destroyed along the Methow Valley including the Sun Mountain and Pine Forest Area; however, the fire has moved over the ridgeline from Wolf Creek into Little Bridge Creek.  Residents in the Twisp River valley are at Level I. Valley temperatures have 100+ and will continue.

July 26: Video of fire from Harts Pass: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/video/7655/0/117668

July 25: Early Evening Video of Cedar Creek fire: https://www.facebook.com/MazamaFires2021/videos/590318825322767

July 25: Both Cedar Creek and Cub 2 Creek fires continued to grow (both ~2,200 acres [or 3.44 square miles]). Both Closure Area and Evacuation Zones have expanded.  Note how the boundary of the fire is within three of the level 3 evacuation zones.

July 12/22: Highway 20 Closed both directions between mileposts 165 and 190.  It is important to note that there are no US Forest Service roads around this closure.  If you want to get to Winthrop (Mazama or Twisp), you need to take I-90 (Snoqualmie Pass) and US 97 OR US 2 (Stevens Pass).  This closure is likely to continue for months.

It is important during fire season, especially on overnight trips, not to get your vehicle trapped.  Be aware of fire behavior and closures.

U.S. Forest Service Incident: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/7655/

July 30, 2021: Two fires

1. Cedar Creek Fire (formerly Cedar and Varden) (41,142 acres): See Figure 1 for its extent and three areas of concern.

2. Delancy Fire (223 acres): shows very little activity

For updates: https://www.facebook.com/MazamaFires2021

See the web-cam link at the bottom for real-time views from the Mazama Trailhead plus other locations.

Take home messages:

(1) Highway 20 will be closed for a long-time.

(2) This fire can only be managed using terrain features, hard work, and luck.  Autumn weather will put it out.  We must reflect on how we got here (everything from putting tribes on reservations and ending all anthropogenic burning to the policy of extinguishing all fires, the belief that North American forests were a true wilderness where humans (including indigenous) had never touched them to timber management practices that failed to mimic historical disturbance regimes (both natural and anthropogenic)).

(3) Honor and respect those fighting the fires; they are risking their health and lives for our benefit.

(4) Air quality in the Methow Valley will continue to be ok to terrible (today's Seattle Times has an article on how air quality as well as the Highway 20 closure has put an end to the tourist season for a recovering valley from previous fires as well as the pandemic..

(5) Climate change is real, I say this as a forest ecologist and a person who has hiked and climbed since 1956.  Climate warming and weather extremes will test both our resilience and the resilience of the forests we depend upon. There is clear evidence that fire size, frequency, and intensity have increased (there are more fuels, greater fuel continuity at both stand and landscape scales and climate change has increased the length of the growing and fire season, increased temperatures, decreased snow packs, especially their duration, etc.).  Between 1985 and 2017, high severity fires (≥95% of the trees are killed) have increased in average size from ~73,000 acres to ~520,000 acres in the west.  There is mounting evidence throughout the west that the species composition and structural characteristics of the returning vegetation are not the same as what burned.  There are even shifts from forest ecosystems to savanna or shrub-dominated ecosystems.

(6) Perhaps forests today would not have the fire, insect, and disease problems had we paid attention and listened to Native Americans.  The opportunity to listen still exists and must be undertaken.  I can provide specific examples if interested.

This is a great hike.  Not much information is available on this officially unmaintained route, but the trail is in good shape.  The round trip to the promontory above Varden Lake and back is 9.5 miles with 4,500 feet of elevation gain; a good workout, but the trail is well graded throughout.  Blueberries are ripe down low, and the flower show throughout the trail right now is amazing.  About two dozen trees are down across the trail, but none are difficult to navigate.  Mudhole Lake is still full, but the real treat is Varden Lake.  About a half mile before the junction to the two lakes, well marked with a large cairn, the right fork takes you to the lakes, but the left fork takes you up to a promontory above Varden Lake with great views of Silver Star and more.  Both options are excellent - you can't go wrong!

Mud Hole may not sound terribly appetizing but we really had a great time. MH shares the trail head with Cedar Creek. About 200 yards up that trail an unsigned trail turns right and decidedly uphill.

Despite being steep this trail is in great shape. Classic east-side ponderosa forest dominated for the first 2000' of steady gain. When we reached the ridge line the trees have changed to sub-alpine fir and whitebark pine. The trail was a joy here rolling up and over a few high points. Most of the wildflowers have passed but higher up on the ridge we encountered squaw berries in spades. Now if you've ever picked squaw berries you know that there will never be enough for a pie. Regardless, they are so sugary and sweet. We picked a cup full (45 minutes of picking for two people) that are so worth it. There are huckleberries but their numbers are negligible.

We over nighted at Mud Hole. This high mountain pond is deep in a larch rimmed bowl. A large hunter camp was a comfortable place to stay. Exploratory hikes around the neighborhood took us to 7054' with fantastic views of Silver Star Peak and much of the North Cascades.

Note: Only the first 100 yards of this hike is on the Cedar Creek Trail.

If one has been to the Methow Valley, gone to the Cedar Creek Trail Head (elevation 3111 ft), and done Forest Service Trail 476 either to Cedar Falls or the entire length of the valley to Abernathy Pass, you probably noted soon after starting the trail, a secondary trail leading off to your right. This trail is Forest Service trail 476A and it ascends steeply along a broad ridge to an east-west trending ridge top, reaches a high point on the ridge near 6,313 feet, leaves the ridge, and ends at Mudhole Lake 6,442 ft. To the lake, the distance is 3.2 miles and the average grade is 22% while the maximum grade is 68% (from Hiking Project). Note: trail 476A is NOT listed on the Methow Valley Ranger District, Trails page. However, the trail is well maintained by some kind, strong, hard working souls.

Two things really peaked my interest in doing this hike. First, there is a 7,054 ft peak at the end of the ridge and the views from it of Silver Star and across Cedar Creek to North and South Gardner and a group of peaks up Shelokum valley must be spectacular. Second, as one leaves Mazama in early fall for Washington Pass, the first golden subalpine larches are seen soon after passing the Early Winters Campground are high on a ridge associated with the 7,054 ft un-named peak. Getting to those larch and that peak were high on my list.

I left the parking lot at 8:00; it was still cool, but the sun promised plenty of heat later. The cottonwood next the beginning of the trail had dropped their seed and the snowbrush was in full flower. The kindness of the Cedar Falls and Abernathy Pass trail soon ended and I started up the Mudhole Lake trail. Soon, it seemed my heart was in my throat and I struggling to find the right pace. The trail ascended quickly, but mostly in the shade of the ponderosa pine/Douglas-fir forest. As soon as I was celebrating that small positive, the trail entered an opening; the sun was hot. Out of character, a less steep switch-back emerged. Spoke too soon, back to a steep section in the sun, then another switch-back, another exposed section, then at least two linked switch-backs emerged, another exposed section and then slightly down and a long gradual rising traverse through a ravine and an ephemeral stream. There was western redcedar, end of bloom false-salmon seal, and lust Oregon boxwood.

The trail then transition to a whole series of somewhat steep switch–backs that were either in dense Douglas-fir, some lodgepole, and an occasional ponderosa pine forest OR in meadows of sweet grass. First, there were a few paint-brush, yarrow, and lupine embedded in the sweet grass. Higher up, it was almost pure lupine with some arnica, then lupine and tall silver crown. These were beautiful meadows and then went on and on. Two long switch-backs and now the trail leveled. One was on the east-west ridge and behind one was Sandy Butte, still a little higher, and to one’s left were the Gardners. Lots of flowers.

Now the trail went up and down, sometimes in the open sometimes in the forest. One was treated to a different set of trees, shrubs, and flowers as one went from the east face to the south face, to north face and then to the west face of each of these small rises and falls on the ridge. Subalpine fir and lodgepole with some Douglas-fir initially dominated then there was more Engelmann spruce, and then subalpine larch. Shrubs changed from snowbrush, Oregon boxwood, pinemat Manzanita, and bearberry to mountain and dwarf huckleberry.

Finally, one enters a mostly subalpine larch forest with dwarf huckleberry and then a trail junction. To the right is Mudhole Lake and straight-ahead is the 7054 ft peak. Soon the grade steepens and the trail becomes a second-class series of boot steps with a few cairns through now pink granite. The top has knarly whitebark pine, a few subalpine firs and lots of subalpine larch. The views! The only negatives were the bugs, a few mosquitoes and lots of biting flies

I took over 120 oz of water with me, had to ration it going down. Going down became more interesting as there was first distant thunder and then as I left the ridge and started down the two long switch-backs it began raining and the thunder was no longer so distant. I used my trusty umbrella to stay dry. The beautiful sweet grass section now fostered wet boots and pants. Near the bottom of the sweet grass section, it stopped raining. One could smell the sweet smell coming from the leaves of snowbrush. Then the sky darkened again, the thunder become still more pronounced and just as I first saw the parking lot, it poured. A long, steep trip with just over 4200 feet of vertical in ~3.2 miles, an average of 24.9%. The photographs speak from themselves.