Summary
Laying first tracks on a gorgeous sunny day made for a study in contrasting conditions.
Trailhead
FR 7820 and FR 7810 are very bumpy with rocks. I took it slow to spare my tires and suspension, but a rock flew up to hit my undercarriage anyway. As if that weren't enough, the branches reaching out for my car successfully scratched it more than once.
The trailhead (once you finally get through final gauntlet) has a sizeable lot which was less than half full on sunny Saturday at 10 am. There were no amenities, just a kiosk.
Trail
Grade moderate throughout. According to my Gaia track, the slope was consistent, though it didn't feel that way. All junctions were clearly signed. Conditions varied depending on segment, but I found my poles useful at all times.
From trailhead to Twin Lake
Tread was rocky and trail was wet and often muddy. Twin Lake itself had some ice on it. Most traffic appeared to be going to or coming from Summit Lake. There was little snow on the trail itself, and what little there was mostly melted in the afternoon.
Twin Lake to junction with Bearhead Mountain trail
Intermittent snow, tread often rough between snow patches. After the initial set of switchbacks, the biggest problem was the traverse along the mountainside - the trail was often very eroded and sloped badly. The slush just added insult to injury. I found this segment downright unpleasant. Luckily, about halfway through, a peek-a-boo view of Rainier kept me going.
Bearhead Mountain trail
Not long after turning left for Bearhead Mountain, the snow went from intermittent to continuous. At the first switchback, I could see where folks before me had decided to turn around. After that, the only prints I saw were from wildlife. I found the trail surprisingly easy to follow given the deep snow (at least 6 inches deep in the open, over a foot at the summit), and only used Gaia to confirm what was already obvious. Even though I had to break trail all the way up, in some ways it was easier than slipping and sliding along the traverse.
Payoff
The views are especially good along most of the Bearhead Mountain spur. It was a truly gorgeous day, bright and warm and sunny, making the snow seem beautiful and magical instead of treacherous. I enjoyed this portion of the trail the most. I was surprised at how close Rainier looked, given that this trail is outside the national park. I also appreciated that it was angle of Rainier I don't normally see.
I don't regret this trip, but I'm unlikely to come back. Seeing the same view again is not worth the rough road, painful traverse, and busy trailhead in warmer times.
The human element
On the way up, I saw three parties, two of them hunters coming down on the Carbon River trail (based on the lack of tracks, they must not have headed up to Bearhead). Those were the only parties I saw until I got back to the junction with the Summit Lake trail at Twin Lake, at which point the trail was moderately popular with folks headed up. The pups I met on trail were polite, I found two piles of unbagged poop at the trailhead at the start of the day.

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